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Modele pentru prognoză folosite de Windguru

Model GFS

GFS reprezinta sistemul meteo global.Acesta este condus de Centrele Nationale de Predictie a Mediului (NCEP), care este o unitate de GFS is a global model so it covers all the Earth! Since January 2015 GFS has been producing forecasts with resolution of 27 km out to 240 hours.

Model NAM

North American Mesoscale (NAM) reprezinta un model regional mezoscara ce foloseste suprafete consolidate si parametrizari imbunatatite ale suprafetelor si proceselor de precipitatii. Este de asemenea utilizat de NCEP, cunoscut in trecut sub numele de Eta, fiind redenumit in NAM la inceputul anului 2005. Windguru foloseste date de prognoza de 84 de ore la intervale de 3 ore ce acopera America de Nord cu o rezolutie medie de 0.11 grade (aproximativ 12 km). Actualizat de patru ori pe zi. O rezolutie mai mare decat a modelului GFS ar trebui sa furnizeze prognoze pe termen scurt mai precise.

Din octombrie 2011 NOAA/ NCEP a adaugat mai multe subdomenii de inalta rezolutie pentru modelul lor NAM Prima varianta folosita de Windguru se refera la Hawaii cu rezolutie de 3 km. Subdomeniile ruleaza in interior domeniul de 12 km de la 0 la 60 ore, dar in acest moment ne arata doar prognoza pe 36 de ore, motivul: pentru 0-36 h fisierele de iesire sunt disponibile din ora in ora, dar in intervalul 36-60h iesirile sunt disponibile din 3 in 3h ceea ce ingreuneaza combinarea in tabelele circulante a prognozelor Windguru Actualizarile se fac de 4 ori pe zi


Model WRF

Modelul Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) reprezinta un sistem numeric mezoscara de prognoza meteorologica de generatie urmatoare proiectat pentru a satisface nevoile de prognoze operationale cat si de cercetari atmosferice. Reprezinta un succesor evolutiv al modelului MM5. Efortul dezvoltarii WRF a fost reprezentat de un parteneriat de colaborare intre National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) si Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Naval Research Laboratory, Universitatea din Oklahoma si Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Mai multe informatii pe site-ul modelului WRF.

Oferim modele WRF pentru majoritatea Europei si Mediteranei. Insulele Canare, Madeira si o parte din coasta Atlantica a Marocului sunt de asemenea acoperite cu modele WRF cu o rezolutie de 9 km. Un alt domeniu mai mic WRF cu rezolutie de 9 km acopera Nordul Marii Rosii cu locatii cunoscute din Egipt, Israel, Lebanon si sudul Ciprului. We also provide WRF 9 km forecasts for East Asia, this domain covers Japan, Korea, Taiwan and east China. WRF 12 km, acoperire pentru Argentina, Chile si Uruguay Conditiile si limitile initiale provin din modelul GFS. Daca totul functioneaza perfect WTF se actualizeaza de 4 ori pe zi si ofera o prognoza pentru urmatoarele 78 de ore la un interval de o ora. Prognozele includ viteza si directia vantului, rafale de vant, temperatura, nebulozitatea si precipitatiile.

Modelul cu cea mai mare rezolutie care ruleaza acum este cel de 3 km. O astfel de rezolutie mare necesita un calcul precis, astfel aria de acoperire nu poate fi prea mare. WRF de 3 km in Republica Ceha, se refera la prognoze pentru urmatoarele 48 de ore si se actualizeaza de 4 ori pe zi. Un alt domeniu mic, de 3 km acopera unul dintre cele mai renumite zone pentru vand : Europa-Tarifa/ Stramtoarea Giblartar


Model HRW

Modelul HRW (High Resolution Window) are la baza modelul de prognoza WRF, este operat de NOAA/NCEP la fel ca modelele GFS si NAM descrise mai sus. Folosim date de prognoza ce acopera insulele din Hawaii cu rezolutie orizontala de 5 km si Statele unite ale Americii cu o rezolutie de 4 km. Durata prognozelor este de 48 de ore. Prognozele pentru Hawaii si estul SUA sunt actualizate de doua ori pe zi (00 UTC si 12 UTC) in timp ce prognozele pentru vestul SUA sunt actualizate o data pe zi (06 UTC). Un alt domeniu HRW 5 km care acopera o parte din Caraibe, Republica Dominicana si Puerto Rico se actualizeaza de doua ori pe zi ( 06 UTC si 18 UTC)

Dupa cum se poate vedea in hartile de mai jos, domeniile de est si vest ale SUA se suprapun destul de mult, astfel daca vizualizati o locatie in centrul SUA ce este acoperita de ambele domenii HRW veti vedea mereu cele mai noi modele de prognoza disponibile - fie de la HRWe sau HRWw in functie de care este cel mai recent. Astfel putem spune ca pentru locatiile din centrul SUA modelul HRW se actualizeaza de 3 ori pe zi (00, 06 si 12 UTC)

Observatii: unele sau toate previziunile HRW nu se vor actualiza daca NOAA are nevoie de rularea modelelor Hurricane pe loc

Prognozele HRW sunt gratuite pentru toti utilizatorii!

Modelul de date actual:

WRF 27 km (Europe):27.11.2021 12 UTC
GDPS 15 km (World):27.11.2021 12 UTC
GFS 13 km (World):27.11.2021 18 UTC
ICON 13 km (World):27.11.2021 18 UTC
RAP 13 km (US):27.11.2021 22 UTC
NAM 12 km (North America):27.11.2021 18 UTC
WRF 12 km (Argentina):27.11.2021 12 UTC
Zephr-HD 11 km (Argentina):27.11.2021 00 UTC
WRF 9 km (Canary):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (East Asia):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (Egypt):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (Europe):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (South Africa):27.11.2021 12 UTC
Zephr-HD 9 km (Europe):27.11.2021 06 UTC
Zephr-HD 9 km (South Africa):27.11.2021 06 UTC
HIRLAM 7.5 km (Europe):27.11.2021 18 UTC
ICON 7 km (Europe):27.11.2021 18 UTC
Zephr-HD 6 km (Brazil):27.11.2021 06 UTC
HARMONIE 5 km (EU):27.11.2021 18 UTC
HRW-ARW 3 km (Caribbean):27.11.2021 18 UTC
HRW-ARW 3 km (Hawaii):27.11.2021 12 UTC
HRW-FV3 3 km (Caribbean):27.11.2021 18 UTC
HRW-FV3 3 km (Hawaii):27.11.2021 12 UTC
HRW 3 km (US):27.11.2021 12 UTC
Zephr-HD 4 km (Spain / Portugal):27.11.2021 06 UTC
Zephr-HD 4 km (Western Australia):27.11.2021 18 UTC
Zephr-HD 3.6 km (Argentina):27.11.2021 00 UTC
Zephr-HD 3.3 km (East US):27.11.2021 06 UTC
Zephr-HD 3.3 km (West US):27.11.2021 12 UTC
HRRR 3 km (US):27.11.2021 21 UTC
NAM 3 km (Hawaii):27.11.2021 18 UTC
WRF 3 km (Aegean Sea):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 3 km (CZ):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 3 km (Canary):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 3 km (English Channel):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 3 km (Gibraltar):27.11.2021 12 UTC
WRF 3 km (Israel+):27.11.2021 12 UTC
Zephr-HD 3 km (Balkans):27.11.2021 12 UTC
Zephr-HD 3 km (Eastern Australia):27.11.2021 12 UTC
Zephr-HD 3 km (Europe):27.11.2021 06 UTC
Zephr-HD 3 km (Italy):27.11.2021 06 UTC
Zephr-HD 3 km (South Africa):27.11.2021 06 UTC
Zephr-HD 2.6 km (Japan):27.11.2021 12 UTC
AROME 2.5 km (Caribbean):27.11.2021 12 UTC
AROME 2.5 km (France+):27.11.2021 12 UTC
AROME 2.5 km (French Guiana):27.11.2021 12 UTC
AROME 2.5 km (French Polynesia):27.11.2021 12 UTC
AROME 2.5 km (Hungary):27.11.2021 18 UTC
AROME 2.5 km (Indian Ocean):27.11.2021 12 UTC
AROME 2.5 km (New Caledonia):27.11.2021 12 UTC
HARMONIE 2.5 km (Netherlands):27.11.2021 18 UTC
HRDPS 2.5 km (Canada):27.11.2021 18 UTC
ICON 2.2 (Germany+):27.11.2021 21 UTC
Zephr-HD 2 km (New Zealand):27.11.2021 12 UTC
AROME 1.3 km (France+):27.11.2021 12 UTC
GWAM 27 km (waves) :27.11.2021 12 UTC
GDWPS 25 km (waves) :27.11.2021 12 UTC
GFS-Wave 25 km (waves):27.11.2021 18 UTC
GFS-Wave 16 km (waves):27.11.2021 18 UTC
GFS-Wave 9 km (waves):27.11.2021 18 UTC
EWAM 5 km (waves Europe) :27.11.2021 12 UTC

Programul de actualizare al modelelor:

ciclu de model: 00 UTC 03 UTC 06 UTC 09 UTC 12 UTC 15 UTC 18 UTC 21 UTC
WRF 27 km (Europe)07:55 UTCn/a13:55 UTCn/a19:55 UTCn/a01:55 UTCn/a
GDPS 15 km (World)05:30 UTCn/an/an/a17:30 UTCn/an/an/a
GFS 13 km (World)04:45 UTCn/a10:45 UTCn/a16:45 UTCn/a22:45 UTCn/a
ICON 13 km (World)03:45 UTCn/a09:30 UTCn/a15:45 UTCn/a21:30 UTCn/a
RAP 13 km (US)01:05 UTC04:05 UTC07:05 UTC10:05 UTC13:05 UTC16:05 UTC19:05 UTC22:05 UTC
NAM 12 km (North America)02:55 UTCn/a08:55 UTCn/a14:55 UTCn/a20:55 UTCn/a
WRF 12 km (Argentina)07:30 UTCn/a13:30 UTCn/a19:30 UTCn/a01:30 UTCn/a
WRF 9 km (Canary)07:45 UTCn/a13:45 UTCn/a19:45 UTCn/a01:45 UTCn/a
WRF 9 km (East Asia)08:05 UTCn/a14:05 UTCn/a20:05 UTCn/a02:05 UTCn/a
WRF 9 km (Egypt)06:30 UTCn/a12:30 UTCn/a18:30 UTCn/a00:30 UTCn/a
WRF 9 km (Europe)07:25 UTCn/a13:25 UTCn/a19:25 UTCn/a01:25 UTCn/a
WRF 9 km (South Africa)06:55 UTCn/a12:55 UTCn/a18:55 UTCn/a00:55 UTCn/a
HIRLAM 7.5 km (Europe)04:15 UTCn/a10:15 UTCn/a16:15 UTCn/a22:15 UTCn/a
ICON 7 km (Europe)03:50 UTC06:20 UTC09:50 UTC12:20 UTC15:50 UTC18:20 UTC21:50 UTC00:20 UTC
HARMONIE 5 km (EU)04:10 UTCn/a10:10 UTCn/a16:10 UTCn/a22:10 UTCn/a
HRW-ARW 3 km (Caribbean)n/an/a08:45 UTCn/an/an/a20:45 UTCn/a
HRW-ARW 3 km (Hawaii)02:50 UTCn/an/an/a14:50 UTCn/an/an/a
HRW-FV3 3 km (Caribbean)n/an/a08:40 UTCn/an/an/a20:40 UTCn/a
HRW-FV3 3 km (Hawaii)02:50 UTCn/an/an/a14:50 UTCn/an/an/a
HRW 3 km (US)02:50 UTCn/an/an/a14:50 UTCn/an/an/a
HRRR 3 km (US)01:50 UTC04:25 UTC07:50 UTC10:25 UTC13:50 UTC16:25 UTC19:50 UTC22:25 UTC
NAM 3 km (Hawaii)02:15 UTCn/a08:15 UTCn/a14:15 UTCn/a20:15 UTCn/a
WRF 3 km (Aegean Sea)06:10 UTCn/a12:10 UTCn/a18:10 UTCn/a00:10 UTCn/a
WRF 3 km (CZ)06:40 UTCn/a12:40 UTCn/a18:40 UTCn/a00:40 UTCn/a
WRF 3 km (Canary)07:25 UTCn/a13:25 UTCn/a19:25 UTCn/a01:25 UTCn/a
WRF 3 km (English Channel)07:00 UTCn/a13:00 UTCn/a19:00 UTCn/a01:00 UTCn/a
WRF 3 km (Gibraltar)06:35 UTCn/a12:35 UTCn/a18:35 UTCn/a00:35 UTCn/a
WRF 3 km (Israel+)08:05 UTCn/a14:05 UTCn/a20:05 UTCn/a02:05 UTCn/a
AROME 2.5 km (Caribbean)07:45 UTCn/a13:50 UTCn/a19:45 UTCn/a01:50 UTCn/a
AROME 2.5 km (France+)05:45 UTCn/a11:35 UTCn/a17:45 UTCn/a23:35 UTCn/a
AROME 2.5 km (French Guiana)07:45 UTCn/a13:50 UTCn/a19:45 UTCn/a01:50 UTCn/a
AROME 2.5 km (French Polynesia)07:50 UTCn/an/an/a19:50 UTCn/an/an/a
AROME 2.5 km (Hungary)02:30 UTCn/a08:30 UTCn/a14:30 UTCn/a20:30 UTCn/a
AROME 2.5 km (Indian Ocean)07:50 UTCn/a13:40 UTCn/a19:45 UTCn/a01:50 UTCn/a
AROME 2.5 km (New Caledonia)07:45 UTCn/a13:50 UTCn/a19:45 UTCn/a01:45 UTCn/a
HARMONIE 2.5 km (Netherlands)04:10 UTCn/a10:10 UTCn/a16:10 UTCn/a22:10 UTCn/a
HRDPS 2.5 km (Canada)04:25 UTCn/a10:25 UTCn/a16:25 UTCn/a22:25 UTCn/a
ICON 2.2 (Germany+)01:30 UTC04:30 UTC07:30 UTC10:30 UTC13:30 UTC16:30 UTC19:30 UTC22:30 UTC
AROME 1.3 km (France+)02:55 UTCn/a08:55 UTCn/a14:55 UTCn/a20:55 UTCn/a
GWAM 27 km (waves) 04:40 UTCn/an/an/a16:40 UTCn/an/an/a
GDWPS 25 km (waves) 05:20 UTCn/an/an/a17:20 UTCn/an/an/a
GFS-Wave 25 km (waves)04:40 UTCn/a10:40 UTCn/a16:40 UTCn/a22:40 UTCn/a
GFS-Wave 16 km (waves)04:40 UTCn/a10:40 UTCn/a16:40 UTCn/a22:40 UTCn/a
GFS-Wave 9 km (waves)04:40 UTCn/a10:40 UTCn/a16:40 UTCn/a22:40 UTCn/a
EWAM 5 km (waves Europe) 04:40 UTCn/an/an/a16:40 UTCn/an/an/a

(Orele aproximative pentru actualizarea modelelor in UTC, ora este acum 27.11.2021 23:25 UTC)



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