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Vädermodeller som används av WindGURU

GFS-modellen

GFS stands for the Global Forecast System. It is run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which is a unit of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), NWS (National Weather Service), USA. The GFS is run four times per day (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC) out to 384 hours. GFS is a global model so it cover all the Earth! Since January 2015 GFS produce forecasts with resolution of 27 km out to 240 hours.

NAM-modellen

North American Mesoscale (NAM) är en regional modell som använder förstärkta och förbättrade terrängparametrar av ytan och nederbördsproccesser. Den äga av NCEP, tidigare Eta, men seda 2005 NAM. Windguru använder 84 timmars prognoser i 3 dags steg som täcker Nord Amerika med en upplösning av 0.11 grader (ca 12km). Den uppdateras fyra gånger dagligen. Högre upplösning av GFS skulle innebära mer exakta närtids prognoser. Karta över täckningen:

NAM 12 km
nam 12km

Since October 2011 NOAA/NCEP added several high resolution subdomains to their NAM model. The first we use on windguru is the one that covers Hawaii in 3 km resolution. The subdomains run inside the main 12 km domain from 0 to 60 h, but at the moment we only show the first 36 hour forecast, the reason for this is that for 0-36h the output files are available in 1 hour steps, but 36-60h only in 3 hour steps, and it is not so easy to combine that in the current windguru forecast tables (at least now, it will probably change in future). Updates are 4 times per day.

NAM 3 km
nam 3km

WRF-modellen

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Modell är nästa generationens prognos designad för både operativa prognoser och atmosfäriska forskningsbehov. Den härstammar från MM5 modellen. Ansträngningarna bakom WRF har varit ett gemensamt samarbete, i princip mellan the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) och Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), the Naval Research Laboratory, Oklahoma University, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Mer info om WRF modellen på deras hemsida.

We are running WRF model for most Europe and Mediterranean. Canary Islands, Madeira and part of Morocco's Atlantic coast are also covered by WRF with 9 km resolution. Another smaller WRF 9 km resolution domain covers Northern Red Sea with popular spots in Egypt, and also Israel, Lebannon and south of Cyprus. We also provide WRF 9 km forecasts for East Asia, this domain covers Japan, Korea, Taiwan and east China. Argentina, Chile and Uruguay are covered by WRF 12 km. Initiala och grundläggande värden kommer från GFS. Om allt går smidigt uppdateras WRF 4 gånger per dag och producerar prognoser för 78 timmar framåt med 1 timmes steg. Prognoserna inkluderar vindhastighet och riktning, vindbyar, temperatur, molntäckt och nederbörd.

The highest resolution model we are running now is 3 km. Such a high resolution requires massive computing so the covered area can't be very large. WRF with 3 km covers Czech republic, forecasts are for next 48 hours and update 4 times per day. Another small 3 km domain covers one of the most famous areas for wind & kitesurfing in Europe - Tarifa / Strait of Gibraltar.

Area covered by WRF with 27 km resolution:
Area covered by WRF with 9 km resolution:
WRF 27 km WRF 9 km

WRF with 3 km resolution: (Czech rep.)
WRF with 3 km resolution: (Gibraltar)
WRF 3 km WRF 3 km

WRF with 9 km resolution: (Canary)
WRF with 9 km resolution: (Egypt)
WRF 9 km WRF 9 km

WRF with 9 km resolution: (South Africa)
WRF with 9 km resolution: (East Asia)
WRF 9 km WRF 9 km
WRF with 12 km resolution: (Argentina)
WRF 12 km


HRW model

The HRW (High Resolution Window) is WRF powered forecast model, it is run by American NOAA/NCEP same like GFS and NAM models described above. We use forecast data which cover Hawaiian islands with 5 km horizontal resolution and United States with 4 km resolution. Forecast length is 48 hours. Forecasts for Hawaii and US east update twice per day (model cycles 00 UTC and 12 UTC) and forecasts for US west update once per day (model cycle 06 UTC). Another smaller HRW 5 km domain covers part of Caribbean around Dominican republic and Puerto Rico and updates twice per day (cycles 06 UTC and 18 UTC).

As you can see on the maps below, the US east and US west domain overlap quite a lot, so if you view forecast for spot somewhere in the central US which is covered by both HRW domains you will always see the latest available model forecast - either from HRWe or HRWw depending on which one is the most up-to-date. So we can say that for central US the HRW model updates 3 times per day (00,06 and 12 UTC cycles)

Notice: Some or all HRW forecasts will not update if NOAA needs to run Hurricane models instead.

HRW forecasts are free to all users!

HRWw with 4 km resolution:
HRWe with 4 km resolution:
HRWw HRWe

HRW with 5 km resolution:

HRW with 5 km resolution:
HRW HRW

Nuvarande modelldata:

GFS 27 km (world):22.05.2019 18 UTC
NWW3 (waves):22.05.2019 18 UTC
WRF 27 km (Europe):22.05.2019 18 UTC
WRF 9 km (Europe):22.05.2019 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (Canary):22.05.2019 12 UTC
WRF 9 km (Egypt):22.05.2019 18 UTC
WRF 9 km (South Africa):22.05.2019 18 UTC
WRF 9 km (East Asia):22.05.2019 12 UTC
WRF 12 km (Argentina):22.05.2019 12 UTC
WRF 3 km (CZ):22.05.2019 12 UTC
WRF 3 km (Gibraltar):22.05.2019 18 UTC
NAM 12 km (N.America):22.05.2019 18 UTC
NAM 3 km (Hawaii):22.05.2019 18 UTC
HRW 5 km (Hawaii):22.05.2019 12 UTC
HRW 5 km (Caribbean):22.05.2019 18 UTC
HRW 4 km (US):22.05.2019 12 UTC

Vid dessa tider uppdateras modellerna:

modellcykel: 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC
GFS 27 km (world)04:50 UTC10:50 UTC16:50 UTC22:50 UTC
NWW3 (waves)04:50 UTC10:50 UTC16:50 UTC22:50 UTC
WRF 27 km (Europe)05:30 UTC11:30 UTC17:30 UTC23:30 UTC
WRF 9 km (Europe)07:30 UTC13:30 UTC19:30 UTC01:30 UTC
WRF 9 km (Canary)08:10 UTC14:10 UTC20:10 UTC02:10 UTC
WRF 9 km (Egypt)07:35 UTC13:35 UTC19:35 UTC01:35 UTC
WRF 9 km (South Africa)07:10 UTC13:10 UTC19:10 UTC01:10 UTC
WRF 9 km (East Asia)08:55 UTC14:55 UTC20:55 UTC02:55 UTC
WRF 12 km (Argentina)08:30 UTC14:30 UTC20:30 UTC02:30 UTC
WRF 3 km (CZ)08:10 UTC14:10 UTC20:10 UTC02:10 UTC
WRF 3 km (Gibraltar)08:20 UTC14:20 UTC20:20 UTC02:20 UTC
NAM 12 km (N.America)02:55 UTC08:55 UTC14:55 UTC20:55 UTC
NAM 3 km (Hawaii)02:15 UTC08:15 UTC14:15 UTC20:15 UTC
HRW 5 km (Hawaii)04:40 UTC 16:40 UTC 
HRW 5 km (Caribbean) 10:45 UTC 22:45 UTC
HRW 4 km (US)05:25 UTC 17:25 UTC 

(Uppskattade modelluppdateringstider i UTC, nuvarande tid är 23.5.2019 00:47 UTC)



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